Biden’s Taiwan vow creates confusion not clarity – and raises China tensions

The somewhat routine press conference in Tokyo was winding down when the question came. "Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?"

Many past American presidents would have deflected, demurred, declined to give a straight answer. Not Joe Biden. "Yes," he replied bluntly, adding: "That's the commitment we made."

Reporters at the scene were taken aback. Sebastian Smith, the White House correspondent for Agence France-Presse, tweeted that Biden's answer "really raised adrenaline levels in that palace briefing room right now. Next we all get to try and explain what it all actually means."

One possible meaning is that America has abandoned its long-held position of "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan. But Biden may have delivered not so much strategic clarity as strategic confusion. That would be on brand for a president who has made a habit of speaking without a diplomatic filter.

China considers the democratic island of Taiwan its territory under its "one-China" principle, and says it is the most sensitive and important issue in its relationship with Washington.

This is where strategic ambiguity comes in. While the US is required by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, it has never directly promised to intervene militarily in a conflict with China - but also never promised to stay out.

This deliberate vagueness has - so far - helped deter China from invading Taiwan while also helping deter the self-ruled island from declaring full independence. Either scenario would trigger a major geopolitical crisis.