Wednesday, 24 Apr 2024

Labor polling suggests Brisbane, Ryan, Bennelong and Higgins are winnable due to PM’s poor standing

Labor polling suggests Brisbane, Ryan, Bennelong and Higgins are winnable due to PM’s poor standing


Labor polling suggests Brisbane, Ryan, Bennelong and Higgins are winnable due to PM’s poor standing

Labor is deploying frontbencher Penny Wong to the electorates of Brisbane and Higgins in the final days of the election campaign, as the opposition becomes increasingly bullish about its prospects in the Liberal-held seats due to voter disaffection with Scott Morrison.

Strategists say Labor's internal polling points to opportunity in four Liberal-held seats - Brisbane and Ryan in Queensland, Bennelong in Sydney and Higgins in Victoria - because disapproval of Morrison is high in these electorates and disaffected centrist progressive voters don't have a teal independent to back.

Guardian Australia understands in private YouGov seat polls, 58% of respondents in Ryan, 57% in Bennelong, 62% in Brisbane and 65% in Higgins disapproved of Morrison's performance as prime minister when asked whether they had a positive or negative view of the Liberal leader.

Albanese's favourability is in the mid-forties in these seats, with voter disapproval numbers in the mid-thirties. The YouGov individual seat surveys, undertaken in February, March, April and as recently as the first week of May, were conducted by phone polling of landlines and mobiles. The sample size for each survey was 400 respondents.

Party strategists say the dynamics in the four electorates are similar to the teal contests in Sydney and Melbourne, with local voters riled up about a lack of action on climate change and professional women alienated by Morrison's response to last year's #MeToo reckoning in parliament.

Wong, who was climate change minister during the Rudd government, has been deployed in the four seats over recent weeks and will redouble on-ground efforts in Brisbane, currently held by Liberal Trevor Evans, and Higgins, currently held by Liberal Katie Allen, as Morrison and Albanese conduct their final dash to the country's marginal electorates ahead of Saturday's election.

Brisbane and Ryan are three-way contests between Liberal, Labor and the Greens. Labor strategists believe they are a nose in front in the Brisbane contest and contend Ryan - once considered a Liberal stronghold - could fall either to the ALP or the Greens on Saturday night.

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