NSW Coalition down but not out as poll shows hung parliament a strong possibility

Nearly six months out from the next New South Wales election, a new poll shows there is little separating the major parties, with a hung parliament a distinct possibility.

The latest Guardian Essential poll of 661 voters showed 36.4% would put the Coalition first on their ballot if an election were held in the state tomorrow, while 32% would choose Labor.

The figures represent a slight drop in popularity for the government since Essential polling conducted two months ago when 37% intended to give the Coalition their first preference vote.

The Coalition won a slender majority in 2019 but has since been forced to govern in minority after losing multiple MPs to the crossbench as well as the seat of Bega in a byelection earlier this year.

Just a quarter of voters under 35 told Essential they would vote for the Coalition, compared to above a third for Labor. Almost 15% of younger votes would put the Greens first.

But since then the Coalition has been dealing with a number of political challenges, including ongoing wages disputes with rail workers, nurses and teachers, and controversy over the appointment of former deputy premier John Barilaro to a highly paid trade gig and the resulting resignation of Stuart Ayres from cabinet.

But with Labor unable to pull meaningfully ahead, opposition leader Chris Minns has a tough six months ahead in which he will be pressed to deliver his vision for the future of the state.