Joe Biden thinks Russia will attack Ukraine – but will face a ‘stiff price’

Joe Biden has said he thinks Russia will attack Ukraine, warning that Moscow would face a "stiff price", but he admitted Nato was divided on how to respond if there is only a "minor incursion".

The White House was forced to issue a hasty clarification to that last point, saying that any movement of Russian forces over the border would be treated as invasion.

But Biden, in his most extensive remarks on the Ukraine crisis to date, given at an extended press conference on Wednesday, alarmed the government in Kyiv and strayed from the show of determined unity that Nato has sought to project.

Asked about Vladimir Putin's intentions, the US president said: "I'm not so sure he is certain what he's going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something."

Biden said a full-scale invasion would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace since World War Two", with the risk of spilling outside Ukraine's borders, and "could get out of hand".

He said that Russia would prevail militarily in an invasion but would suffer heavy casualties.

"This is not all just a cakewalk for Russia militarily," he said, noting the military aid the US has provided recently. "They'll pay a stiff price, immediately, short-term, medium-term and long-term if they do it."