2026 Western Conference Finals odds, best bets, series spread: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Spurs have lost only three times so far this postseason, but they didn't have Victor Wembanyama in two of those losses. It took San Antonio five games to eliminate the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round and six to get past the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference semifinals.

As you can see in my blurb for OutKick's newsletter above, San Antonio owned OKC in the regular season and NBA Cup. You can't pooh-pooh those results either because the Thunder had Shai, Williams and big Chet Holmgren for three of their four losses to the Spurs this season.

Also, San Antonio has been essentially unbeatable with Wembanyama on the floor. According to The Ringer's Zach Lowe on "The Bill Simmons Podcast," the Spurs are 37-3 when Wemby plays at least 15 minutes since February 1.

San Antonio's size is the main reason it has betting value in this series. Spurs wings Stephon Castle and Julian Champagnie can defend Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter and it's harder for him to operate in the mid-range with Wembanyama protecting the paint.

Think about it: Shai drives into the paint, uses his off-arm to get a makeable look. But San Antonio's wings are long and athletic enough to contest those shots and he is driving into Wemby's turf.

Furthermore, the Spurs negate two of Oklahoma City's strengths: Getting to the foul line and forcing turnovers. San Antonio led the NBA in defensive FT/FGA rate during the regular season and ranked fifth in offensive turnover rate.

We are getting a great price on the Spurs in this series because they don't have playoff experience. Yet, that doesn't matter since San Antonio put the right pieces around the best basketball player ever and matches up perfectly with OKC.

For the record, the way I'm betting the Western Conference Finals is to risk three-fourths of my bet on the Spurs +1.5 series games (-110) and the other quarter-unit on San Antonio to win the series (+210).

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